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Bitcoin Bull Market Comparison

Current cycle: 1.19× since the halving Behind past cycles −80.7%

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Y axis

Growth vs. own anchor (log) Days since each cycle's halving 1×5×10×50×100× 02404807209601,2001,440

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Each cycle starts at 1× on its own halving day (Apr 20, 2024 for the current one), so the four runs line up day for day. Log scale.

Cycle Peak gain Time to peak If this cycle matched it
2012 cycle Nov 2012 – Jul 2016 100× 371 days $6,511,338
2016 cycle Jul 2016 – May 2020 29.7× 525 days $1,928,501
2020 cycle May 2020 – Apr 2024 8.53× 1,402 days $554,466
Current cycle Apr 2024 – now 1.92× 534 days —

"If this cycle matched it" applies each past cycle's figure from the peak gain column to the current cycle's halving price ($64,979). Arithmetic on past data, not a forecast.

BTC daily closing prices from CryptoCompare (bundled) and CoinGecko for days after the last bundle refresh. Halving dates and cycle boundaries match the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle chart.

Cycle overlays are a pattern-matching lens, not a forecast. Four cycles is a small sample, past performance does not indicate future results, and no price on this page is a prediction or investment advice.

Bitcoin bull market comparison

Growth vs. own anchor (log) Days since each cycle's halving 1×5×10×50×100× 02404807209601,2001,440
Every calculator here runs on formulas verified against primary sources and is reviewed before it ships.
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Fabio Arcieri Built and reviewed by
Fabio Arcieri

Last reviewed: September 2026

How to read the cycle comparison chart

The chart lines up Bitcoin’s four halving cycles side by side, using one of four alignment modes:

  • Halving — day zero is the date Bitcoin’s block-reward subsidy cuts in half, the classic anchor for cycle theory.
  • Cycle bottom — day zero is the lowest close of the drawdown that preceded each cycle’s rally.
  • Previous-ATH break — day zero is the first close that clears the prior cycle’s all-time high (ATH). The current cycle did that in March 2024, a month before its halving.
  • Cycle top — day zero is each cycle’s own expansion peak, so the chart reads the decline that followed rather than the rally into it.

Two y-axis modes control how price is scaled:

  • Growth multiple — rebases every cycle to 1x on its anchor day, so cycles of wildly different price levels plot on one log scale.
  • Rescaled $ — multiplies each past cycle’s prices by a fixed factor so every line starts at the current cycle’s anchor price, showing implied dollar levels directly.

The table below the chart adds three figures per cycle:

  • Peak gain — the highest multiple that cycle reached over the anchor price (labeled by decline for the cycle-top mode).
  • Time to peak — the number of days between the anchor and that peak.
  • If this cycle matched it — what the current cycle’s anchor price would imply if it repeated that past cycle’s peak gain.

Why cycles are aligned by days since anchor, not calendar date

Bitcoin traded at $12 during its first halving cycle and at $65,000 during its fourth. A chart plotting both on the same calendar timeline and dollar axis would show one flat line dwarfed by the other, telling you nothing about how the cycles compare.

Indexing each cycle to its own anchor date, then plotting price as a multiple of that anchor’s close, fixes both problems. Day 500 of the 2012 cycle sits next to day 500 of the current one, regardless of what either was trading at.

Each line reads its own price history as a growth curve starting at 1x. That normalization is what makes four cycles spanning a 5,000x difference in absolute price comparable on one chart.

The shrinking peak gains across Bitcoin’s cycles

Each of Bitcoin’s four halving cycles has peaked at a smaller multiple of its halving-day price than the one before it:

  • 2012 cycle — topped near 100x its halving-day close on December 4, 2013.
  • 2016 cycle — topped near 30x its halving-day close on December 16, 2017.
  • 2020 cycle — topped near 8x its halving-day close on November 8, 2021.
  • Current cycle — its expansion peaked near 1.9x its halving-day close on October 6, 2025, before turning into drawdown.

This pattern is a direct read of the table’s peak gain and time to peak columns in halving-alignment mode. Each row’s multiple steps down from the one above it, matching the halving-day-to-peak figures on the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Chart.

Why cycle comparisons have limits

Four cycles is a small sample for any statistical claim about how Bitcoin behaves after a halving.

Each cycle also unfolded in a different market structure. The 2020 cycle was still largely retail and offshore-exchange driven. The current cycle started after the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, adding institutional demand that didn’t exist in the earlier three cycles. That inflow changes whether the halving’s supply shock still translates into the same rally shape.

Past cycles describe what happened, not what happens next. The shrinking multiples above are the core evidence for the argument that the four-year cycle is already broken. The alignment modes on this page measure the current cycle against history. They don’t extend the pattern forward.

Frequently asked questions

  • What does "days since anchor" mean on this chart?
    "Days since anchor" measures how many days have passed since each cycle's own starting point, not a calendar date. The anchor depends on the alignment mode: the halving date, the drawdown bottom that preceded the rally, the day price broke the prior all-time high, or the cycle's top. Plotting every cycle's day count against its own anchor, instead of the calendar, is what lets cycles from 2012 and today share the same x-axis.
  • What is the difference between the growth multiple and rescaled dollar views?
    The difference between the growth multiple and rescaled dollar views is how each rebases price. Growth multiple rebases every cycle to 1x on its anchor day, so each line reads as a pure percentage move regardless of the starting price. Rescaled dollar instead multiplies each past cycle's prices by a fixed factor, so every line starts at the current cycle's anchor price and shows the same move in dollars.
  • Why did the current cycle's peak gain come in lower than past cycles?
    The current cycle's peak gain came in lower because every Bitcoin halving cycle has topped at a smaller multiple than the last. The 2012 cycle topped near 100x, 2016 near 30x, and 2020 near 8x. The current cycle's expansion peaked near 1.9x on October 6, 2025. Bitcoin's halving-day price climbed from $12 in 2012 to $64,979 at the most recent halving, so the same percentage gain now requires far more capital to produce.
  • Does a lower implied price in the table mean Bitcoin's cycle is weaker this time?
    A lower implied price mainly reflects Bitcoin's larger size, not a weaker cycle. The "if this cycle matched it" column applies a past cycle's peak multiple to the current anchor price, and multiples have shrunk every cycle as the asset has grown. A smaller multiple on the current cycle's $64,979 halving-day price, versus $12 at the first halving, can still produce a bigger dollar gain than a larger multiple did on that far smaller base.
  • Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still reliable after the spot ETF approvals?
    Whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still reliable is contested. The pattern held loosely through the current cycle. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and other institutional flows now move more capital than the halving's own supply cut, something past cycles never had to contend with. The most defensible framing treats the four-year cycle as a historical lens rather than a rule the market must follow.
  • Why compare cycle bottoms or ATH breaks instead of always using the halving?
    Comparing cycle bottoms or all-time high (ATH) breaks instead of the halving isolates a different part of each cycle's story. The halving anchors to the protocol's own event, while the cycle-bottom anchor isolates the rally from its lowest point. The previous-ATH break anchor isolates the run once a cycle has already cleared its old high, which can happen before the halving itself. Each mode answers a different question about timing.