Methodology | Orange Abacus

Every number on Orange Abacus comes from a disclosed data source and a plain-language model described on this page. No black-box outputs, no proprietary adjustments. Each calculator’s assumptions are reviewed before it ships. For the legal framing around how these tools may be used, see the Disclaimer.

Where our data comes from

Bitcoin price. Live spot prices from CoinGecko. Historical daily closes are a CryptoCompare series extended daily with CoinGecko data.
Network data. Block height, difficulty, hashrate, and transaction fees from mempool.space.
USD/EUR conversion. Frankfurter, which republishes the European Central Bank’s daily reference rates.
Historical block counts. Daily block counts derived from blockchain.com and extended daily from mempool.space. Used by the Issuance Chart only.
Lender rates. Each lender’s own published rate page. Used by the Lending Rates tracker only.
Company and equity market caps. Finnhub, refreshed weekly. Used by the Market Cap Calculator only.

Every calculator runs entirely in your browser. Inputs and results never leave your device, and Orange Abacus has no accounts and performs no server-side calculation.

Bitcoin DCA Calculator

Model. Each scheduled contribution buys BTC at that calendar day’s closing price. The accumulated BTC is valued at the live BTC spot price.
Data source. Historical daily closing prices from CryptoCompare, extended with CoinGecko data. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko. EUR contributions are converted at the Frankfurter USD/EUR rate.
Refresh cadence. The live price is fetched when the page loads, and the most recent stored price is used if that fails. The historical closes and the EUR rate are refreshed daily.
What this doesn’t account for. Intraday price swings, exchange trading fees, and taxes. A contribution dated after the latest stored daily close is priced at the live spot price, and nothing is projected forward.

Bitcoin Future Prediction DCA Calculator

Model. A deterministic what-if path runs from today’s price to a target you set, under a Growth, Sideways, or Decline outlook. Each scenario within an outlook (for example a steady climb, a late surge, or a dip and recovery) defines the shape of the path, with light, seeded variation so identical inputs always produce identical results. The Historical scenario, the default, instead rescales a recent stretch of real daily closes to start at today’s price and end at the target.
Data source. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko sets the starting point. The same historical daily closes used by the DCA calculator supply the Historical scenario’s shape. EUR contributions use the Frankfurter rate.
Refresh cadence. The live price is fetched when the page loads. The historical closes and the EUR rate are refreshed daily.
What this doesn’t account for. This is a what-if tool, not a forecast: no scenario predicts what Bitcoin will do. It also excludes exchange fees and taxes.

Bitcoin Loan Calculator

Model. A generic overcollateralized, fixed-rate, interest-only loan with simple (non-compounding) interest, a single liquidation threshold, and a margin-call level set ahead of it. If the threshold is breached, the model liquidates the full collateral. The structure reflects common terms across BTC-backed lenders, not any single lender’s live terms.
Data source. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko sets the collateral’s current value. APR, LTV, term, fees, and the margin-call buffer are the values you enter.
Refresh cadence. The live price is fetched when the page loads, and the most recent stored price is used if that fails.
What this doesn’t account for. Variable-rate or rolling-margin loan structures, partial liquidations, and any lender-specific fee beyond the origination fee field.

Bitcoin Lending Rates

Model. A side-by-side comparison of BTC-backed loan rates, ranked by starting APR, lowest first. Each lender’s headline figure is its lowest published rate, shown next to its rate type (fixed or variable), LTV, and loan term. Orange Abacus does not calculate, adjust, or blend any rate.
Data source. Rates come from each lender’s own published rate page, and every row links back to it. LTV and loan term come from the lender’s published terms.
Refresh cadence. Rates are re-collected weekly and LTV and term monthly. The page shows the date rates were last checked. A lender whose rate cannot be verified is left out of the table until its data is confirmed.
What this doesn’t account for. Only the starting rate is shown, and the rate you are offered depends on your LTV, term, and the lender’s approval, and for some lenders on loyalty tier or market conditions. Lenders define LTV differently (origination, maximum, or liquidation), and fees, custody model, and collateral reuse policies also differ and are not scored, so rows are not strictly comparable. Rates can change at any time, so confirm with the lender before borrowing.

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Calculator

Model. Expected daily revenue is the number of blocks your hashrate would find at the current network difficulty, multiplied by the block reward (current subsidy plus recent average fees), net of your pool fee, and valued at the live BTC price. Daily cost is the machine’s power draw times your electricity rate. Monthly and yearly figures extend the daily result, holding price and difficulty constant.
Data source. Network difficulty, hashrate, and recent average fees per block from mempool.space. BTC price from CoinGecko. Hashrate and power specs are manufacturer-published figures for a fixed list of ASIC models.
Refresh cadence. Network data and price are fetched when the page loads. If live data is unavailable, a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot is used.
What this doesn’t account for. Difficulty and price changes within the monthly and yearly projection window, plus cooling, hosting, maintenance, and resale value.

Bitcoin Halving Countdown

Model. The blocks remaining until the next halving are multiplied by the network’s current average block interval to project a date. The estimate re-syncs while the page is open.
Data source. Current block height and average block interval from mempool.space.
Refresh cadence. Re-fetched periodically while the page is open, with the on-screen timer ticking every second between syncs. If live data is unavailable, a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot is used.
What this doesn’t account for. The average block interval can shift after every sync, so the projected date is always an estimate, never a fixed deadline.

Bitcoin Issuance Chart

Model. Charts how much new bitcoin the network actually issued per day, week, month, quarter, or year, rather than what the schedule predicts. Observed block counts are converted to issued BTC using Bitcoin’s consensus rules: a subsidy that started at 50 BTC and halves every 210,000 blocks, capped at 21 million. A stats panel shows supply to date, supply remaining, and annual supply growth, and the headline compares the last complete period with what the 10-minute block target implies.
Data source. Historical daily block counts derived from blockchain.com and extended daily from mempool.space. Live block height and average block interval from mempool.space.
Refresh cadence. The historical data is extended daily. Live stats are fetched on load and re-fetched periodically while the page is open, with a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot as fallback.
What this doesn’t account for. Supply follows the protocol formula, so it includes coins that are provably lost or were never claimed, and the spendable amount is lower. The current period is still in progress and its total is not final. The projected end of issuance, around 2140, is an estimate that assumes block timing holds near 10 minutes.

Bitcoin Sats Converter

Model. Converts between sats, BTC, and a selected fiat currency. The ratio of 100,000,000 satoshis per bitcoin is a fixed protocol constant, and fiat values apply the live BTC spot price in the selected currency.
Data source. CoinGecko’s live BTC quote in USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, and JPY. Each currency is quoted directly by CoinGecko rather than converted from USD.
Refresh cadence. The quote is fetched when the page loads and reused briefly on repeat loads. If no live or cached price is available, fiat values are left blank.
What this doesn’t account for. Bid/ask spread or any specific exchange’s fees. The figure shown is a reference spot price, not a tradable quote.

Sats to USD Converter

Model. Converts between satoshis and US dollars in both directions at the live BTC/USD price, using the protocol’s fixed ratio of 100,000,000 satoshis per bitcoin. The reference table applies the same conversion to preset amounts.
Data source. BTC spot price from CoinGecko.
Refresh cadence. The price is fetched when the page loads and reused briefly on repeat loads. If no live or cached price is available, the USD field is disabled instead of showing a guess.
What this doesn’t account for. Bid/ask spread or any exchange’s fees. The figure is a reference spot price, not a tradable quote.

Bitcoin Transaction Fee Estimator

Model. The fee is the current network fee rate applied to an estimated transaction size. Size is modeled for a single-signature spend from the address type you choose (Legacy, Native SegWit, or Taproot) and the number of inputs and outputs, and the amount being sent does not affect it. Each confirmation-speed tier shows the resulting fee in dollars at the live BTC price, and the selected tier also in satoshis.
Data source. Recommended fee rates and projected upcoming blocks from mempool.space. BTC price from CoinGecko, with the most recent stored daily close shown until the live price loads.
Refresh cadence. Fee rates are re-fetched frequently while the page is open. If the live feed fails, the page shows the last cached rates, or a fixed set of example rates if none exist, and hides the upcoming-blocks view instead of showing an invented mempool.
What this doesn’t account for. A fee rate is a bid, not a guarantee, and confirmation times are estimates that change as new transactions arrive. Sizes are modeled for standard single-signature spends only, so multisignature and other non-standard transactions are not covered.

Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Chart

Model. Cycle windows are a fixed set of expansion and drawdown boundaries derived from historical daily closes, not a live-fitted model. Each expansion runs from a halving to that cycle’s peak close, and each drawdown runs from the peak to the subsequent low. The current drawdown’s end date is a projection based on the length of earlier drawdowns, and the boundaries are revised only after a cycle resolves. The chart plots the full daily-close history on a logarithmic scale, marks the latest close, and projects the next halving date the same way as the Halving Countdown.
Data source. Historical daily closes from CryptoCompare, extended with CoinGecko data, as used by the DCA calculators. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko. Block height and average block interval, for the projected next halving, from mempool.space.
Refresh cadence. The historical closes are refreshed daily. The live price and network data are fetched when the page loads, and the halving projection falls back to a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot if live data is unavailable.
What this doesn’t account for. The cycle windows are fixed, not recalculated live, so they lag until a cycle resolves. Boundary choices also involve judgment, for example the first cycle’s low ignores anomalous prices from the February 2014 Mt. Gox failure. Four completed halvings is a small sample, and the pattern is a market observation read onto the halving schedule, not a rule the protocol enforces.

Bitcoin Bull Market Comparison

Model. Overlays Bitcoin’s four halving cycles on one chart, each measured in days from a shared anchor: the halving, the preceding cycle bottom, the break above the previous all-time high, or the cycle top. Price is shown either as a multiple of the anchor day’s close or rescaled to the current cycle’s anchor price. A table reports each cycle’s peak gain and timing, and the current cycle is compared with the median of the completed ones at the same age, using the same cycle boundaries as the 4-Year Cycle chart.
Data source. Historical daily closes from CryptoCompare, extended with CoinGecko data, as used by the DCA calculators.
Refresh cadence. The historical closes are refreshed daily, and the page re-syncs while it is open. Anchors for completed cycles are fixed.
What this doesn’t account for. Four cycles is a small sample, and each unfolded in a different market, including the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the current one. The overlay is a lens on the past, not a forecast. Anomalous prices from the February 2014 Mt. Gox failure are excluded from the anchors.

Bitcoin Market Cap Calculator

Model. Market cap is BTC price multiplied by circulating supply, with supply computed from the live block height and the protocol’s issuance schedule rather than assumed to be 21 million. A second mode reverses the calculation, dividing a target market cap (typed in or picked from a list of reference assets) by circulating supply to return an implied price per coin. Results are shown next to a few reference comparisons, such as gold, national economies, and large companies.
Data source. Live BTC price from CoinGecko and block height from mempool.space. Gold is valued from CoinGecko’s BTC quote in gold ounces applied to an estimate of the world’s above-ground gold stock. Company and equity-index market caps come from Finnhub, and the remaining comparisons (such as national GDP and global real estate) are curated figures from public sources.
Refresh cadence. BTC and gold prices are fetched when the page loads. Finnhub-sourced figures are refreshed weekly, and curated figures are updated manually.
What this doesn’t account for. Comparison figures are approximations for scale and can be out of date between refreshes, and index figures are estimated from a tracking proxy rather than a published aggregate. National GDP is an annual flow, not a market value, so comparing it to a market-cap snapshot mixes two kinds of measurement. Any hypothetical price or market cap shown is an illustration, not a forecast.

Bitcoin Cost Basis Calculator

Model. A simple weighted average: total fiat invested across every entered lot, divided by total BTC accumulated, gives your average cost basis. Unrealized gain or loss compares your holdings, valued at the live price, against the total invested.
Data source. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko. When a lot has only one side entered (fiat or BTC), the other side is derived from the historical daily close on the lot’s date, using the same closes as the DCA calculator. EUR values use the Frankfurter USD/EUR rate.
Refresh cadence. The live price is fetched when the page loads. The historical closes and the EUR rate are refreshed daily.
What this doesn’t account for. FIFO, LIFO, HIFO, or any other tax-lot accounting method. This is a single weighted average across all entered lots, not a jurisdiction-specific tax calculation.

If I Bought Bitcoin Calculator

Model. Compares the historical daily closing price on the date you enter against today’s live BTC price, and reports the BTC bought, the gain or loss, and the return multiple.
Data source. The same historical daily closes used by the DCA and Cost Basis calculators, starting in July 2010. Live BTC spot price from CoinGecko.
Refresh cadence. The live price is fetched when the page loads. The historical closes are refreshed daily.
What this doesn’t account for. Exchange trading fees, taxes, or inflation on the original amount. The result is a before-costs snapshot, not a net return.

Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

Model. A month-by-month projection runs from your current age to the age you plan to: before retirement, your yearly contribution buys bitcoin at the projected price and your other savings grow at the traditional return you set, and in retirement the income you want is drawn from both in proportion to their value. The bitcoin growth rate can be held flat or eased toward a lower long-run rate, and results are shown in today’s dollars by default. A verdict reports whether the plan lasts and, if it runs short, whether retiring later closes the gap.
Data source. Starting BTC price from CoinGecko, with the most recent stored daily close as fallback. Every other figure is computed from the assumptions you enter.
Refresh cadence. The starting price is refreshed periodically while the page is open and applies the next time the projection runs. The projection runs when you press Calculate and updates as you change inputs afterward.
What this doesn’t account for. Fees, trading costs, and taxes of every kind. Growth is a smooth path you choose, so the projection does not model volatility or the order in which good and bad years arrive. No growth rate is a forecast, and a rate held for decades is an assumption, not a property of bitcoin.

Bitcoin Difficulty Tracker

Model. Current difficulty and block height are read from the network’s latest block. Epoch progress and the projected change at the next retarget are mempool.space’s estimates, extrapolated from the blocks mined so far in the current epoch. The chart plots the network’s retarget history, with 1-year, 2-year (default), 5-year, and all-time windows.
Data source. Current block height, current difficulty, and retarget history and metrics, all from mempool.space.
Refresh cadence. Re-fetched periodically while the page is open. If live data is unavailable, a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot is used.
What this doesn’t account for. The projected next retarget is an estimate that moves as the epoch’s average block interval changes, and it is final only once the epoch’s last block confirms.

Bitcoin Hashrate Tracker

Model. Network hashrate is mempool.space’s estimate, inferred from how fast blocks are being found relative to the current difficulty, not a direct count. The tracker shows the current estimate, a 7-day average and week-over-week change, and the current difficulty, and charts daily-average history back to 2009 with an optional BTC price overlay.
Data source. Hashrate estimates, daily history, difficulty, and block height from mempool.space. The price overlay uses the same historical daily closes as the DCA calculators.
Refresh cadence. Re-fetched periodically while the page is open. If live data is unavailable, a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot is used.
What this doesn’t account for. Hashrate is a statistical estimate, so the current figure swings between updates, which is why the 7-day average is shown alongside it. Difficulty only resets at each retarget and lags hashrate, so the two will not line up at any given moment. Nothing is broken out by pool, miner, or country.

Bitcoin Uptime Tracker

Model. The genesis clock counts elapsed time from Bitcoin’s fixed genesis timestamp (January 3, 2009, 18:15:05 UTC). Uptime is the share of that time not lost to Bitcoin’s two documented consensus incidents: the August 2010 value overflow (about 8 hours 27 minutes) and the March 2013 chain fork (about 6 hours 55 minutes). Live network status shows the time since the last block, the current average block interval, and the block height.
Data source. The genesis timestamp and the two incident durations are fixed historical constants, taken from block-explorer and CVE records (CVE-2010-5139 and CVE-2013-3220). Tip-block height and timestamp and the average block interval come from mempool.space.
Refresh cadence. The genesis clock ticks every second in the browser. Live network status is re-fetched periodically, with a cached value or a recorded reference snapshot as fallback. The uptime percentage is deterministic and recomputed on load.
What this doesn’t account for. Uptime here means base-layer consensus continuity, not the availability of any wallet, exchange, or individual node, and normal variance in block timing is not downtime. Only the two incidents, the only periods the network failed to converge on a single valid chain, count against the total. Because that fixed downtime shrinks as a share of an ever-growing total, the figure holds at approximately 99.99%.

When data can’t be reached

Live data follows the same order everywhere: a fresh fetch first, then a recently cached value, then, on the tools that carry one, a reference snapshot recorded earlier. Fallback values are previously recorded data, not estimates, and can be out of date. The exceptions are the EUR rate and the Transaction Fee Estimator’s example fee rates, where a fixed approximate value is used if no live or cached figure is available.

Keeping this page current

This page is updated whenever a calculator’s model, data source, or known limitation changes, and it gains a new section once a new calculator has shipped, been approved, and is running in production. For the legal framing around how these tools may be used, see the Disclaimer.